How Close is Promotion?

There will be any number of followers and supporters of The Hakes that are trying to calculate how close we are to promotion. A number of variables can be taken into account. However, the basic answer is two fixtures away. If we win both we will be there. Our players would not wish to tail off the season with a poor finish in our last home game.

St Ives’ remaining fixtures are Exeter Saracens away and Plymstock Albion Oaks at home.

South West competition rugby regulations paragraph 13.6.11 (d) (i) states:

"An adjustment of match points will be made if either Club involved in the unplayed match is a contender for promotion (league winners or runners up) or relegation by virtue of an equal number of League points.”

Simply put, this means that the points from the Newquay Hornets match against Withycombe, 69:5, would be wiped out if St Ives and Withycombe end up with the same number of league points.

Although we are twenty league points ahead of Withycombe at the moment, they could win all of their remaining matches with a bonus point. This would mean they would score at least twenty match points per game. If they could play these games before we play another one the table would look like this.

Withycombe have the following fixtures to play (plus Exeter Saracens):-

Therefore, if St Ives won against Exeter Saracens this Saturday, with a bonus point, the teams would be level on match points with 103. St Ives would have to score four tries so let’s adjust their match points accordingly:

However, if Exeter Saracens do not play us on Saturday, there is no value to their game against Withycombe going ahead and that match has not re-arranged date yet.

Conclusion

Whether St Ives play Exeter Saracens or not, a loss against Plymouth Albion Oaks would make points difference count and Withycombe would have to find another sixteen points difference per match.

If St Ives gets one point or more from the Plymstock Albion Oaks game, they will be promoted, so all the maths about points difference is unnecessary.